The volatility linkages between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets, in the context of US-China trade war

This study discusses the volatility linkages between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets and compares the impact of the US-China trade war on these markets along with other exogenous shocks. This study also identifies the best-fit forecasting model for agricultural commodity markets by incorporating the impact of crude oil and exogenous shocks. Further, recognising that trade-war-associated changes to the price volatility of crude oil and agricultural commodities will impact their returns and, consequently, their exports to the global supply chain. The findings of this thesis would allow policymakers and investors to anticipate future agricultural commodity price dynamics for developing appropriate response strategies.