Modelling Structural Changes in Human Mortality

Human life expectancy has been increasing more than expected. This research aims to enhance forecast accuracy of traditional models, which often overlook changing age patterns in historical mortality trends. As population ages, there is a tendency that mortality improvements of older age groups reduce faster than those of younger age groups. This study extends existing methods to incorporate time-varying age patterns in mortality development. The improved models generate more accurate and realistic mortality predictions, which are crucial for pensions, insurance companies, and public health plans. By accounting for structural changes in mortality, this research helps ensure that financial and social planning better reflects the evolving nature of human mortality.