Heart failure in older Australians: Epidemiology and risk prediction modelling

The population burden and costs of heart failure (HF) are predicted to increase, unless those at high-risk of HF are identified and targeted for risk reduction. This thesis used data from older hypertensive cohort managed in a community to investigate the epidemiology of HF, and develop HF risk prediction model. HF is a frequent long-term outcome in older hypertensives, and survival after HF diagnosis remains poor. Despite the abundance of HF prediction models, their application remains unclear due to methodological limitations. Multivariable model consisting of readily accessible variables that allows reliable prediction of 10-year risk of incident HF was developed.