CRIME OPPORTUNITY & RISK FORECASTING: A NEW PERSPECTIVE APPLIED TO STREET ROBBERIES IN JOHANNESBURG CENTRAL, SOUTH AFRICA
thesisposted on 31.08.2021, 05:04 authored by FRANCOIS VAN JAARSVELD
The study’s aim was to design and develop a new crime forecasting model called Crime Opportunity & Risk Forecasting (CORF) to address the existing limitations to implementation within the South African context. The CORF model addressed these limitations through a synthesized template of Criminology’s Opportunity Theories, and an uncomplicated, cost-effective and thorough design, that resulted in the successful forecast of 81% of street robberies that took place in Johannesburg Central during April 2017. The successful forecast indicated that the CORF model could provide valuable academic insights for scholars and present governments with a formidable new tool to prevent crime.