Australian dryland low-rainfall crop producers experience significant variance in rainfall and are vulnerable to climate shocks and climate change. This study investigated the effect of climate shocks and predicted climate change on dryland wheat production net present value (NPV) returns and soil productive capacity for a representative study site in south-eastern Australia for 1960-2015. This study found that crop heat stress and the effect of increased soil moisture combined with hotter temperatures on the soils productive capacity had the largest effect on wheat yields and NPV returns. An alternative fertiliser application method to reduce climate shocks on wheat crops is hydro-priming, which reduces climate shock yield and soil carbon impacts. This study utilises site soil carbon and nitrogen variance to develop a method for valuing agricultural land providing farmers with a method of evaluating land management decisions.