A mid-latitude influence on Australian monsoon bursts in reanalyses and coupled climate models

The Australian monsoon delivers most of the rainfall over northern Australia, and is characterised by rapidly developing bursts of rainfall which last from days to weeks. In this thesis it is shown that mid-latitude troughs initiate two thirds of these bursts.  State-of-the-art climate models disagree on how the Australian monsoon will be affected by climate change. We find that these models are able to simulate the mid-latitude influence on bursts, although other influences are not correct.  Climate change projections of northern Australian rainfall are found to be particularly related to changes in the frequency of mid-latitude influenced bursts.