VSRG Research Program: Identifying Future Vehicle Safety Priority Areas In Australia For The Light Vehicle Fleet (MUARC Report 359)

This analysis aimed to identify future priority action areas for light vehicle safety by identifying crash types that will not be fully addressed in the future by projected improvements in active and passive safety in the light vehicle fleet. Modelling the likely future crash profile of the light vehicle fleet in Australia identifies target areas for future vehicle design and technology improvements that will assist in achieving the goals of Towards Zero. Analysis was based on the analysis of real-world crash data from 5 Australian jurisdictions overlaying current evidence on vehicle safety feature fitment and effectiveness.

Three future vehicle safety priority areas were identified from the analysis: (i) fatal pedestrian crashes, (ii) single vehicle frontal crashes with fixed objects, (iii) front-to-front vehicle crashes both at intersections and midblocks and front-to-side impacts at intersections including straight crossing path and right turn across path crash types. These crash types were projected to be the largest contributors to fatalities by 2030. Although not the most prevalent crash type, crashes involving bicycles and mopeds were forecast to grow proportionately over the study period. Remaining crash types in 2030 will be poorly addressed by current vehicle safety technologies. For example when considering single vehicle fixed object crashes, ESC will provide no further benefits in reducing single vehicle crashes after 2030 since the fleet will have achieved full fitment in the 2030 vehicle fleet whilst current evidence suggests AEB has limited impact in addressing high speed crashes with fixed objects.

This analysis highlighted the limitations in fatality and serious injury reductions related to the natural penetration of vehicle safety technology fitment. Significant number of fatalities resulting from intersection crashes, single vehicle run off road and head on crashes will remain whist pedestrian crashes will grow in their proportionate importance. Additional or enhanced vehicle safety technologies will need to be developed that better address these crash types such as AEB effective for high speed fixed object crashes and V to V technologies to mitigate intersection crashes. In addition, means to address the key remaining crash types elsewhere in the system need to be considered through measures such as road infrastructure treatments and appropriate speed limit setting for high risk environments where vehicle safety technology proves inadequate.