The new intergenerational report's population projection and the uncertainty of Australia's demographic future

Recently it was announced that the population projection to be included as part of the next Intergenerational Report places Australia’s population at a little over 35 million by 2049. Much media discussion has followed this announcement, a great deal of it concentrating on how the nation should plan for this coming population growth. A number of commentators, at least implicitly, appear to accept the projection as the true population of Australia at mid-century. This paper argues that the size of Australia’s population in 40 years time is in fact subject to considerable uncertainty. It provides some indications of the magnitude of this uncertainty, outlines reasons why it exists, and recommends the use of probabilistic methods for future projections. Copyright. Monash University and the author/s