Estimating the Deterrent Effect of Punishment Using New South Wales Local Court Data

This paper provides empirical estimates of the economic model of crime using New South Wales Local Court data. The results as a whole, suggest that neither deterrence nor pecuniary and attitudinal variables exclusively explain variations in the crime rate. This conclusion differs from previous testing of the economic model in Australia using crime data for more serious offences. The results in this study, nevertheless, have to be viewed with caution and are subject to revision with better data and further research in other Australian jurisdictions. The paper reviews the policy implications of the results and makes some suggestions for further research using both aggregate and individual data.