Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility in China, 1952-2000

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1990) and Johansen and Juselius (1988) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. We do not find support for the often-held claim of Chinese policy makers and scholars that China's fertility transition owes largely to the "awesome strength" of the family planning policy. Our results suggest that socio-economic development played a bigger role than the family planning policy - a result more consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis than with the recent 'ideational' hypothesis.