Monash University
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Bayesian Analysis of the Stochastic Conditional Duration Model

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journal contribution
posted on 2017-06-05, 06:00 authored by Strickland, Chris M., Forbes, Catherine S., Martin, Gael M.
A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed for estimating the stochastic conditional duration model. The conditional mean of durations between trades is modelled as a latent stochastic process, with the conditional distribution of durations having positive support. The sampling scheme employed is a hybrid of the Gibbs and Metropolis Hastings algorithms, with the latent vector sampled in blocks. The suggested approach is shown to be preferable to the quasi-maximum likelihood approach, and its mixing speed faster than that of an alternative single-move algorithm. The methodology is illustrated with an application to Australian intraday stock market data.


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Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

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