Australian centre for population research: public seminar series

If the fertility rate stabilises at around 1.6 children per woman and net overseas migration averages at least 75,000, the public policy dimensions of Australia’s population future should be manageable. Our means tested age pension and the superannuation guarantee mean that we face very low rates of pension expenditure growth. Pressure on the public purse is more likely to come from health, but this may not be the direct result of ageing. Nor should anticipated changes to the size and age of the labour force present insurmountable problems. There would be significant economic and social implications, however, if fertility were to fall to European or Japanese levels, or if net migration, especially skilled, were allowed to decline. To help ensure a sustainable population future we need to: know more about the causes of fertility decline; continue to attract young, highly trained migrants with good English skills; and encourage older Australians to remain longer in the labour force. Copyright. Monash University and the author/s