Monash University
Browse
monash_2275.pdf (811.8 kB)

Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing

Download (811.8 kB)
journal contribution
posted on 2017-06-05, 01:34 authored by Snyder, Ralph D., Koehler, Anne, Ord, Keith
Exponential smoothing, often used for sales forecasting in inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains the appropriate approach under more general conditions where the variances are allowed to grow and contract with corresponding movements in the underlying level. The implications for estimation and prediction are explored. In particular the problem of finding the prediction distribution of aggregate lead-time demand for use in inventory control calculations is considered. It is found that unless a drift term is added to simple exponential smoothing, the prediction distribution is largely unaffected by the variance assumption. A method for establishing order-up-to levels and reorder levels directly from the simulated prediction distributions is also proposed.

History

Year of first publication

1999

Series

Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

Usage metrics

    Categories

    No categories selected

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC