%0 Journal Article %A Narayan, Paresh Kumar %A Narayan, Seema %D 2017 %T The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji %U https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/journal_contribution/The_J-Curve_Evidence_from_Fiji/5072377 %R 10.4225/03/5934b536b7d4e %2 https://bridges.monash.edu/ndownloader/files/8587693 %K cointegration %K trade balance %K monash:2160 %K 2003 %K 1959.1/2160 %K Fiji %K J-curve %X This article provides new evidence on both long-run and short-run determinants of trade balance for Fiji and investigates evidence of J-curve adjustment behaviour in the aftermath of a devaluation. We adopt the partial reduced form model of Rose and Yellen (1989) which models the real trade balance directly as a function of the real exchange rate and real domestic and foreign incomes. Cointegration analysis is based on the recently developed Pesaran and Shin (1998) autoregressive distributed lag approach - shown to provide robust results in finite samples - not previously used in the balance-of-trade literature. The long-run elasticities are also estimated using the dynamic ordinary least squares approach of Stock and Watson (1993) and the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FM-OLS) of Phillips and Hansen (1990). The major results show that there is a long-run relationship between trade balance and its determinants. There is evidence of the J-curve pattern; growth in domestic income affects Fiji's trade balance adversely while foreign income improves it. %I Monash University